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Will Russia launch an attack on NATO considering that it considers the war in Ukraine part of its confrontation with it? Wyatt : Only if Putin were sure that the US would not respond. That could happen under a Trump Presidency. After Trump forced a settlement on Ukraine that gave Ukrainian territory to Russia, and signaled to Putin that the US would not defend Europe. But Trump is unpredictable. It is not certain that Trump would be relaxed about Putin attacking a NATO neighbor after Trump had – in his mind – given peace to Ukraine and Europe by settling the Ukraine / Russian war. Even in circumstances most favorable to Putin, it is not certain that he would decide to attack a NATO neighbor after his forces have suffered such losses and his military stocks are so low. The special role of Poland and Finland RFE / RL : In the event that the USA stays on the sidelines, who would bear the brunt in the event of a Russian attack: Poland, the Nordic countries, Germany, France, Great Britain? What about others like Italy, Spain, Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey? Wyatt : In theory, everybody, but some would be more active than others. Expect Poland to be a keen player. Its geography puts it at the heart of any likely conflict. It spends more than 2% of its GDP on defense and it does not trust Russia.

It is estimated that “By the 2030s, Poland will have more tanks than the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy combined.” But how about battle-ready for, say, The invasion of Ukraine in any event seems to have led to a change of heart in Germany, a confession that Germany misread Putin, and a commitment to increased defense spending. The UK would likely stick by its NATO commitments, looking to work closely with France and Germany. UK tank forces have in 2023 been training with German forces in Germany. In military personnel in NATO exercise “Steadfast Defender”. Italy has recently upped its military spending and participated in a NATO Phone Number List nuclear-readiness exercise. The rise of European populists weakens support for Ukraine CSR: Will Europe remain united in the event of Russian aggression against, say, the Baltic states, or will sacrifice it to them, counting on Russia not to further escalate the conflict, given the current political divisions within the EU, including the prospect of the rise of the far right in the upcoming elections for The European Parliament? Wyatt: These are big questions, key questions, and in a way, unanswerable questions, because there are so many variables in the equation. Far-right/populism is not a certain predictor of Putin-admiration or tolerance.



Poland under a populist government increased its military strength and has put itself in good shape to resist Russian aggression. Right-wing populist Giorgia Meloni is not a Putin fan, and the UK's populist former leader Boris Johnson is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters and tries to win support for Ukraine in Republican circles. That said, Orban of Hungary and Fico of the Slovak Republic are pro-Putin, as is Gert Wilders, although his role in a future Netherlands government might be less than decisive. I think that populist gains in national governments may be more worrying than gains in the European Parliament, but both could weaken Europe's support for Ukraine and military response to Russian aggression. It is far from certain that Europe would stay united if Russia attacked, say, the Baltics, and the US stayed on the sidelines. The threat or use of nuclear weapons by Putin could stop some NATO countries in their tracks, because their leaders and their population would be seriously alarmed about the consequences for their armed forces and for their civilian populations. A battlefield nuclear weapon can be aimed at military bases or critical infrastructure like power stations, and cause mass destruction and numerous casualties.
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